Choosing the Leader by Matthew N. Green Douglas B. Harris

Author:Matthew N. Green,Douglas B. Harris [Green, Matthew N.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Yale University Press
Published: 2018-01-15T00:00:00+00:00

Note: Table entries for each model are probit coefficients with robust standard errors in parentheses. The final column shows the average predicted probabilities of supporting Hoyer when each variable in Model 4 is changed from 0 to 1 (for dichotomous variables) or increased by one standard deviation (for continuous variables) with the difference in brackets.

^ significant at p < .1; * significant at p < .05; ** significant at p < .01; *** significant at p < .001 (2-tailed test).

These findings support the professional connections and salient goal hypotheses. They also suggest what went wrong with Murtha’s campaign. Though he distributed campaign funds to other Democrats and successfully drew support from more liberal legislators, he failed to overcome Hoyer’s more generous campaign contributions and senior lawmakers’ preference to support the heir apparent. Pelosi’s help was not enough to overcome Hoyer’s other advantages.

Conclusion

The three heir apparent races examined here show that, as with open competition races, members of Congress consider an array of professional connections and individual goals when choosing whom to support for party leader. Our analyses also support the claim that heirs apparent benefit from the votes of older, more senior, and more influential party members, even if their particular goals are not made explicitly salient by the candidates, their campaigns, or the political context. As a result, there are some discernible advantages to being heir to a leadership post that probably dissuade most would-be challengers. That the heir lost in two of our three cases, however, indicates that those advantages are not insurmountable. The very fact that a race emerges might be an indicator of not just sharp intraparty divisions but major weaknesses of the heir apparent as well.

In the next chapter, we study a third category of leadership races which can produce, or be a sign of, even greater intraparty turmoil: when an incumbent is challenged for reelection by one or more party members. Like heir apparent races, they are relatively uncommon, and when they do occur they tend to result in lopsided victories for the incumbent. Nonetheless, as will be seen, even an election that ends in a one-sided victory can be politically consequential.

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